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Winning the veepstakes

Winning the veepstakes

Michelle Tedford September 20, 2024

How did professor Christopher Devine correctly pick both vice presidential candidates for the 2024 election?

devine-christopher.jpgYou could say he wrote the book on it.

Along with co-author Kyle Kopko of Elizabethtown College, Devine researched and published Do Running Mates Matter? in 2020.

The short answer is “yes.” But maybe not how you’d think.

Devine has been quoted in dozens of media outlets around the world — including Japan, Australia and Chile — this U.S. election season as reporters tried first to predict, and then to explain, J.D. Vance and Tim Walz being chosen for the Republican and Democratic tickets, respectively.

Veep candidates do not, based on evidence, deliver a state or a religious or demographic group — something Devine calls “buying voters on the cheap.”

“You shouldn’t expect them to be decisive in a race,” Devine told Times Radio in the United Kingdom.

2409_vp_incopy.jpgRunning mates matter because they reveal the judgment of the presidential candidate. “Could people see this person as the vice president of the United States — potentially president — next year?” Devine asked on NewsNation.

That perception of credibility impacts public perception — and votes for — the top of the ticket. Especially for presidential candidates who are not incumbents, the veep choice is seen as their first big decision. It signals to voters how good of a leader the president could be when faced with other big decisions.

“What does this pick tell us about Kamala Harris? What did J.D. Vance tell us about a
second Donald Trump term?” Devine told viewers of C-SPAN’s Washington Journal just prior to the Walz announcement.

“That’s where it is really useful — it tells you something about the judgment and priorities and sometimes the ideologies … of the presidential candidates.”

Devine and Kopko looked at data from 1952 to 2016 and measured impact and influence of decision-making among particular voting groups.

Devine — who also correctly picked Harris as Joe Biden’s running mate — said he appreciates being able to offer clarity to the public on important political conversations. Providing data and analysis illuminates a seemingly mysterious process, enhancing the understanding of the electorate. And that, he said, serves the common good.

Of the people